Covenant News

Danger of Volcanic Eruption Continues

ECUADOR (October 1, 1999) - Guagua Pichincha continues the process of erupting and Pichincha is in Orange alert, according to the most recent report from Covenant missionary Dale Engen. Southern Quito was covered Friday with an inch of ash following eruption of the Guagua Pichincha volcano, with a major eruption forecast in the not-too-distant future.

Engen and his wife Linda, John and Erin Robertson, and short-term missionary Lana Heinrich are all stationed in Quito where there are ten Covenant churches.

"Because of cloud cover, it is hard to know exactly what is happening," Engen said, noting that some believe the magma has risen to the level of the volcano crater. According to information released by the United States embassy, there is a 95 percent chance that the volcano will erupt sometime in the next hours or days, but only a 20 percent chance it will be a violent eruption, according to Engen.

"The recent activity - on the weekend blowing off a portion of the old dome and Friday the activity that left about an inch of ash in south Quito - are both part of the process of the eruption," Engen explained. "The feeling is that every two or three days we will have some type of activity similar to this, each with increasing intensity, until we arrive at the major eruption. This process will take from a week or so to a couple of months or more."

The crater of the volcano points at a forty-five-degree angle away from Quito, so the city is expected to miss the brunt of the eruption. "The effect on the city will depend on the winds at the time of the eruption," Engen explained. "It is possible that a violent eruption could occur and the city be totally unaffected because the winds are blowing to the West. Depending on the winds and thus the accumulation of ash in the city, this could result in some mud slides in the valleys coming off Pichincha toward the city," he observed.

Engen predicted the ash will seed the clouds, "and since we are in rainy season, we can expect rain to begin within an hour or two of the major eruption," he explained. "Mostly likely we will not go to Red alert until the volcano is beginning its major eruption, and then we will have about an hour before the ash begins to fall," Engen continued. "The eruption will probably last two or three hours. During this time it will be best to stay put. Dry ash is just dirty. Wet ash is very slippery. Wet ash will cause traffic jams and many accidents. One concern is that a large accumulation of ash that gets wet will be very heavy - perhaps 100 pounds per square foot. Therefore it will be important to clean off roofs if there is any accumulation, as this could cause some houses to collapse," he said

Engen said "unless it looks like things are really turning bad - from listening to the news reports - we will do fine staying in the city. The mayor and the head geologist for Ecuador are doing a good job and are giving us full and correct information," he said. "If we go to Red alert, I would suggest staying put and riding it out. If we see that things may be heading to a worst case scenario before the Red alert is called, we could consider leaving the city. But, at this time it doesn't appear to be heading in that direction. The mayor does have a plan of evacuation for the city should that become necessary."

More information will be posted to this website as it becomes available.

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